Assessing the accuracy of health facility typology in representing the availability of health services: a case study in Mali.

INTRODUCTION: Using health facility types as a measure of service availability is a common approach in international standards for health system policy and planning. However, this proxy may not accurately reflect the actual availability of specific health services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the reliability of health facility typology as an indicator of specific health service availability and explore whether certain facility types consistently provide particular services. DESIGN: We analysed a comprehensive dataset containing information from 1725 health facilities in Mali. To uncover and visualise patterns within the dataset, we used two analytical techniques: Multiple Correspondence Analysis and Between-Class Analysis. These analyses allowed us to quantitatively measure the influence of health facility types on the variation in health service provisioning. Additionally, we developed and calculated a Consistency Index, which assesses the consistency of a health facility type in providing specific health services. By examining various health facilities and services, we sought to determine the accuracy of facility types as indicators of service availability. SETTING: The study focused on the health system in Mali as a case study. RESULTS: Our findings indicate that using health facility types as a proxy for service availability in Mali is not an accurate representation. We observed that most of the variation in service provision does not stem from differences between facility types but rather within facility types. This suggests that relying solely on health facility typology may lead to an incomplete understanding of health service availability. CONCLUSIONS: These results have significant implications for health policy and planning. The reliance on health facility types as indicators for health system policy and planning should be reconsidered. A more nuanced and evidence-based understanding of health service availability is crucial for effective health policy and planning, as well as for the assessment and monitoring of health systems.

Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections.

BACKGROUND: On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa--Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.